By J. William Chettle, Head of Investments
Almost one month ago, on February 28, America and Israel launched a massive bombing offensive against Iran, targeting mainly military and governmental installations, infrastructure, and leadership. Operation Epic Fury has threatened to become a wider, regional war as Iran has launched missile and drone attacks against military and civilian facilities across the Mideast.
Global markets have generally reacted negatively. As of March 20, the S&P 500 is down 4.7% YTD. Foreign Stocks are down 1.4% and the 10-Year Treasury is down 1.0%. U.S. Bonds are down .7%. While Emerging Markets have experienced some downdrafts, they are still up 4.5% YTD. While Growth has taken a beating, declining 9.5% YTD, Value is still eking out a positive .8% return.[1]
Fueling these declines is something markets abhor--uncertainty.
While we may not have certainty, now seemed like a good moment to share some perspective and put the current moment in context.
Energy Prices & The Impact of Uncertainty
It is not clear how long this war will continue, if it will broaden substantially, how it will impact energy supplies, including energy infrastructure, and what effect it may have on economies around the world. Any numbers of scenarios are possible, and for now, there is little consensus on what may or may not happen in the weeks and months ahead.
For now, at least, it is energy that is the biggest unknown and concern. Though many countries have made substantial investments in renewal energy, much of the world still runs on oil and gas.
As the largest oil producer in the world, and a net energy exporter, the U.S. doesn’t have to worry about shortages, but prices are still driven by global conditions. The price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the standard measure of U.S. oil prices, is hovering just under $100 a barrel.[2] Nationwide, gasoline has risen by more than a dollar a gallon since the war began and is now averaging $3.942 a gallon.[3] This rapid short-term spike in U.S. oil prices is exceeded only by the price increase following Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Diesel, jet fuel, and fertilizer prices have also soared, while prices for food and electricity could also rise. Concerns about inflation have already sent mortgage rates past 6.22%[4] (they were below 6% in February).
No one likes paying more at the gas pump, but Wall Street forecasters estimate that higher energy prices will reduce U.S. gross domestic product by less than half a percentage point in the second quarter.[5] That is less than the impact of the government shutdown last fall.
Economists disagree on whether $120, $130, or even $150 per barrel is the level where the economy begins to suffer significant economic harm. Goldman Sachs[6] estimates that every sustained $10 increase in oil prices cuts U.S. GDP growth by about .1%. However, the specific price per barrel is less important ultimately than how long prices stay high and the overall macroeconomic environment.
Paradoxically, U.S. stocks have tended to do better in years when oil prices rose vs. declining. Over the last four decades, the S&P 500, returned on average, 13.1% in years oil prices increased, vs. 11.3% for years oil prices fell.[7]
Reflecting the current thinking on the economic impact of the war, the Federal Reserve met on March 18 and left interest rates unchanged and made only minor changes to their economic forecast for the year.
Some commentators now believe that if the Fed lowers interest rates later in the year, that would be a sign that the economy was potentially in trouble.
War & Markets
Looking back at history, we can see that many S&P 500 corrections (≥10%) were clearly tied to wars or geopolitical shocks, but many were not. Markets often react sharply but briefly to war-related uncertainty, and many of these declines do not become prolonged bear markets.
Here are the most relevant examples[8]:
Korean War (1950)
Gulf War (1990)
Iraq War (2003)
Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022)
Some lessons we can observe:
1) “Markets sell the uncertainty, buy the resolution:” Markets often fall ahead of or at the outbreak of war, then recover once outcomes become clearer.
2) War alone rarely causes deep bear markets: The biggest drawdowns typically require recession, monetary tightening, and/or financial imbalances. War is often a trigger, not the fundamental driver
3) Energy shocks matter: Wars that disrupt oil (1990, 2022) tend to have larger and more persistent effects. But they are typically short-lived and can reverse quickly.
Your Long-Term Financial Goals
Wars can have substantial political, geopolitical, economic, and humanitarian impacts.
But it is important to remember that your investment strategy is based not on macro events and headlines but on your long-term financial objectives, which take into account market fluctuations and political and economic conditions—even conflicts—as well as the long-term potential of markets around the world.
The current conflict is particularly unpredictable and fast changing. There are many possible outcomes, but very little clarity on what will happen and when. The war could widen or a ceasefire be declared in the next few weeks.
We do know that global markets will probably remain volatile and may experience further declines. And energy prices may remain high for some time, even after hostilities end.
Some investors may be tempted to make changes to their portfolios and reduce their risk level. Some may even be tempted to go to cash. Others may even see speculative opportunities. But the high level of uncertainty currently means that trying to make short-term investment predictions is almost impossible.
History suggests that the long‑term economic and market impact of geopolitical conflicts is generally limited, and market declines typically recover over time.
If you have questions, or would like to discuss this current environment, your Symmetry team is prepared to help.
Click here to contact us directly
Thank you for your continued trust.
About Symmetry Partners
Symmetry Partners LLC was founded in 1994 by financial advisors for financial advisors. The firm offers a comprehensive range of investment solutions, including High-Net-Worth wealth strategies. To help advisors deliver a better client experience, we also provide marketing, technology, and operational consulting and support.
[1] MacroBond Financial AB, Morningstar Inc., Bloomberg LP, Factset. S&P 500 is represented by the S&P 500 Index. Growth is represented by the Russell 1000 Growth Index. Value is represented by the Russell 1000 Value Index. Foreign Stocks are represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Emerging Markets are represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. 10-Yr Treasury is represented by the Bloomberg 10-Year US Treasury Bellwethers Index. US Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index.
[2] Trading Economics. (2025). Crude oil . Trading Economics Website. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
[3] AAA. (2022). AAA Gas Prices. https://gasprices.aaa.com/
[4] Schmidt, G. (2026, March 19). Mortgage Rates Highest in Three Months as War Weighs on Housing Market. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/19/business/mortgage-rates-iran-war.html
[5] Casselman, B. (2026, March 20). The U.S. Economy Is Insulated From High Oil Prices. Americans Aren’t. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/business/us-economy-oil-prices-inflation-iran-war-americans.html
[6] Moz Farooque, & Provini, C. (2026, March 9). Goldman Sachs delivers quiet warning on oil prices. TheStreet. https://www.thestreet.com/economy/goldman-sachs-delivers-quiet-warning-on-oil-prices
[7] Carlson, B. (2026, March 8). How Do Higher Oil Prices Impact Stock Market Returns? - A Wealth of Common Sense. A Wealth of Common Sense. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/how-do-higher-oil-prices-impact-stock-market-returns/
[8] D’Souza, D. (2026). The Impact of War on the Stock Markets—What Investors Need To Know. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/the-impact-of-war-on-the-stock-markets-what-investors-need-to-know-11918505
All data is from sources believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed or warranted.
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